Making Sense

A Year of Divergence: The Market and Economic Outlook for 2025

In this episode, Fabio Bassi, head of Cross-Asset Strategy, hosts a comprehensive discussion with J.P. Morgan Research experts on the market and economic outlook for 2025. With a focus on inflation, geopolitical uncertainty and policy changes, the team provides insights into the expected trends in equities, currencies, commodities and more.

 

0:51 - Hussein Malik, head of Global Research

2:04 - Bruce Kasman, chief global economist

5:54 - Dubravko Lakos-Bujas, head of Global Market Strategy

10:36 - Jay Barry, head of Global Rates Strategy

15:53 - Meera Chandan, co-head of Global FX Strategy

21:11 - Stephen Dulake, co-head of Fundamental Research

24:57 - Luis Oganes, head of Global Macro Research

30:16 - Natasha Kaneva head of Global Commodities Strategy

34:57 - Fabio Bassi, head of Cross-Asset Strategy

 

This episode was recorded between November 29 - December 16, 2024.

This material (Material) is provided for your information only and does not constitute: (i) an offer to sell, a solicitation of an offer to buy, or a recommendation for any investment product or strategy, or (ii) any investment, legal or tax advice. The information contained herein is as of the date and time referenced in the Material and J.P. Morgan does not undertake any obligation to update such information.  J.P. Morgan disclaims any responsibility or liability, whether in contract, tort (including, without limitation, negligence), equity or otherwise, for the quality, accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this Material, and for any reliance on, or uses to which, this Material, is put, and you are solely responsible for any use to which you put such information. Without limiting any of the foregoing, to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, in no event shall J.P. Morgan have any liability for any special, punitive, indirect, or consequential damages (including lost profits or lost opportunity), in connection with the information contained in this Material, even if notified of the possibility of such damages.  Any comments or statements made herein do not necessarily reflect those of J.P. Morgan, its subsidiaries or its affiliates.

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Trading Insights: AI in the Macro Process, with Balyasny’s Head of Macro Research & Chief Economist

In this episode, we hear from Chris Pulman, head of Macro Research and Chief Economist at Balyasny Asset Management. Chris discusses the role of Macro Research and Economics in creating value within the investment process; use of data, models, tech systems and generative AI within the macroeconomic space; the benefits of marrying fundamental expertise with technological processes; and the skillsets required to excel in this area. Chris is in discussion with Eloise Goulder, head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan.

 

This episode was recorded on June 26th, 2024. 

The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan’s Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

“A Year of Surprises”: Global Capital Markets Recap and 2025 Outlook

Join host Amaury Guzman and Kevin Foley, Global Head of Capital Markets, as they dive into the 2024 market surprises, implications from the U.S. election, and what lies ahead for global capital markets in 2025. Discover insights on refinancing trends, M&A activity, and the opportunities and challenges that could shape the capital markets landscape. Plus, get a sneak peek at the themes to watch at J.P. Morgan's upcoming 30th Global Leveraged Finance Conference.

 

This episode was recorded on December 4, 2024.

This material was prepared by certain personnel of JPMorgan Chase & Co. and its affiliates and subsidiaries worldwide and not the firm’s research department. It is for informational purposes only, is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase, sale or tender of any financial instrument and does not constitute a commitment, undertaking, offer or solicitation by any JPMorgan Chase entity to extend or arrange credit or provide any other products or services to any person or entity. ​

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved. ​

Trading Insights: Thinking ‘Future Back’, with J.P. Morgan’s Head of Corporate Futurism

In this episode, we hear from Debora Kantt, head of Corporate Futurism at J.P. Morgan. Debora discusses the importance of thinking ‘Future Back’, in overcoming behavioral biases and training the human brain to think in a non-linear way.  She also provides examples of ‘weak signals’, or seeds of future trends, across the biocomputing and affective computing fields. Debora is in discussion with Eloise Goulder, head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan.

 

Shownotes:

To learn more about the Data Assets & Alpha Group: https://www.jpmorgan.com/markets/market-data-intelligence

 

This episode was recorded on October 15, 2024.

The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan’s Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

Trading Insights: Long-Term Investing for a Long-Term Mission, with Wellcome Trust

In this episode we hear from Elaina Elzinga, Principal and Head of Active Manager Selection at Wellcome Trust. Elaina runs through portfolio construction when spanning investments from HFs to LOs to real assets, how use of data and AI in the investment space influences allocation decisions, and how these longer term investment goals interplay with Wellcome Trust’s mission and purpose.  Elaina is in discussion with Eloise Goulder, Head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan.  

 

To learn more about Wellcome Trust: www.wellcome.org

To learn more about the Data Assets & Alpha Group: https://www.jpmorgan.com/markets/market-data-intelligence

 

Related podcasts:

 

Asset Allocation amid Climate risks, with Fidelity International Macroeconomist – January 2024

 

A Macroeconomic Approach to Investing, with Fulcrum’s Chief Risk Officer – February 2024

 

Recording date: 17 October 2024

 

The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan’s Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan.

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

Trading Insights: A Post-Election Rally in U.S. Equities

In this episode, the Data Assets & Alpha Group review recent U.S. equity strength and discuss the potential for a further rally into year-end.  They discuss implications of the U.S. elections, recent macro and micro data and sectors which look to offer better risk / reward.  They also discuss the relative underperformance of European equities and the risk / reward in China.  Andrew Tyler, head of Global Market Intelligence, and Federico Manicardi, head of International Market Intelligence, are in discussion with Eloise Goulder, head of the Global Data Assets & Alpha Group.

Note that this discussion follows episodes released on:

• July ’24 – US Equities at All-Time Highs
• Jun ’24 – An Underperformance in European Equities

 

This episode was recorded on November 19, 2024.

 

The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan’s Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan.

How Trump 2.0 Could Impact the Global Economy and Markets

In this episode of Research Recap, chair of Global Research Joyce Chang and chief economist Bruce Kasman discuss the economic and geopolitical implications of a second Trump presidency. They discuss how Trump 2.0 could impact U.S. growth and inflation, while also considering the broader global effects, particularly around international trade and tariffs. How might these policies play out on the global stage? 

 

This episode was recorded on November 12, 2024.

This communication is provided for information purposes only. Please visit www.jpmm.com/research/disclosures for important disclosures. JPMorgan Chase & Co. or its affiliates and/or subsidiaries (collectively, J.P. Morgan) normally make a market and trade as principal in securities, other financial products and other asset classes that may be discussed in this communication.

This communication has been prepared based upon information from sources believed to be reliable, but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy except with respect to any disclosures relative to J.P. Morgan and/or its affiliates and an analyst's involvement with any company (or security, other financial product or other asset class) that may be the subject of this communication. Any opinions and estimates constitute our judgment as of the date of this material and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. This communication is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Research does not provide individually tailored investment advice. Any opinions and recommendations herein do not take into account individual circumstances, objectives, or needs and are not intended as recommendations of particular securities, financial instruments or strategies. You must make your own independent decisions regarding any securities, financial instruments or strategies mentioned or related to the information herein. Periodic updates may be provided on companies, issuers or industries based on specific developments or announcements, market conditions or any other publicly available information. However, J.P. Morgan may be restricted from updating information contained in this communication for regulatory or other reasons. This communication may not be redistributed or retransmitted, in whole or in part, or in any form or manner, without the express written consent of J.P. Morgan. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. Receipt and review of this information constitutes your agreement not to redistribute or retransmit the contents and information contained in this communication without first obtaining express permission from an authorized officer of J.P. Morgan.

Copyright 2024, JPMorganChase & Co. All rights reserved.

Trading Insights: QIS Developments and the Use of LLMs

In this episode, we hear from Deepak Maharaj, Head of Equities and Cross Asset QIS Structuring at J.P. Morgan. Deepak discusses the rapid development of Equities QIS strategies - from the technology enhancements to the use of LLMs in product development - and where this space is likely to evolve in future. Deepak is in discussion with Eloise Goulder, Head of the Data Assets & Alpha Group at J.P. Morgan.  

Shownotes:

To learn more about the Data Assets & Alpha Group: https://www.jpmorgan.com/markets/market-data-intelligence

 

Related podcasts:

Extending the trend, with JP Morgan’s Lead CTA Structurer

Time Traveler: A Look Back in Time with Fredrik Giertz – Part 1

Time Traveler: A Look Back in Time with Fredrik Giertz – Part 2

 

This episode was recorded on October 7, 2024.

The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan’s Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan.

How Hedging Market Risk is Changing

As electronic trading continues to expand across asset classes, how has this shaped the way market risk is hedged? Do market makers hedge risk differently from buy-side market participants? Kate Finlayson from the FICC Market Structure & Liquidity Strategy team is joined by Eddie Wen, Global Head of Digital Markets and Chi Nzelu, Global Head of FICC eTrading, to discuss changes in the hedging of market risk, the impact of network centric eTrading and how emerging technology continues to shape portfolio management.

This podcast was recorded on October 10th, 2024.

The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of JPMorgan Chase & Co, and its affiliates, together J.P. Morgan, and do not constitute research or recommendation advice or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument. They are not issued by Research but are a solicitation under CFTC Rule 1.71. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you, and may not be available in all jurisdictions. J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed. The FICC market structure publications, or to one, newsletters, mentioned in this podcast are available for J.P. Morgan clients. Please contact your J.P. Morgan sales representative should you wish to receive these. For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures

© 2024 JPMorgan Chase & Company. All rights reserved.

Navigating the Hedge Fund Frontier: Insights on Early-Stage Investing

Dive into the world of early-stage hedge fund investing with Kumar Panja, EMEA Head of Capital Advisory Group and Sam Diedrich, Managing Director and Head of Absolute Return at Partners Capital Investment Group. Uncover strategies for emerging managers, the power of SMAs, and the art of probabilistic thinking. Perfect for aspiring managers and savvy investors seeking a competitive edge.

This episode was recorded on July 16, 2024.

The views expressed in this podcast may not necessarily reflect the views of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co and its affiliates (together “J.P. Morgan”), they are not the product of J.P. Morgan’s Research Department and do not constitute a recommendation, advice, or an offer or a solicitation to buy or sell any security or financial instrument.  This podcast is intended for institutional and professional investors only and is not intended for retail investor use, it is provided for information purposes only. Referenced products and services in this podcast may not be suitable for you and may not be available in all jurisdictions.  J.P. Morgan may make markets and trade as principal in securities and other asset classes and financial products that may have been discussed.  For additional disclaimers and regulatory disclosures, please visit: www.jpmorgan.com/disclosures/salesandtradingdisclaimer. For the avoidance of doubt, opinions expressed by any external speakers are the personal views of those speakers and do not represent the views of J.P. Morgan.

To find out more about our services, please contact markets.marketing@jpmorgan.com